| Predicted | Finish | Rider | Team | Odds | Prob | CumProb | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Quintana | Movistar | 4 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | |
| 2 | 8 | Evans | BMC | 8 | 0.1110 | 0.3110 | |
| 3 | 30 | Roche | Tinkoff-Saxo | 10 | 0.0910 | 0.4020 | Lost 15 minutes on stage 6 |
| 4 | DNF | Scarponi | Astana | 11 | 0.0830 | 0.4850 | Lost ten minutes on stage 8; abandoned on Stage 16 |
| 5 | DNF | Martin | Garmin | 12 | 0.0770 | 0.5620 | Crash, Stage 1 |
| 6 | 2 | Uran | OPQS | 15 | 0.0630 | 0.6250 | |
| 7 | DNF | Rodriguez | Katusha | 16 | 0.0590 | 0.6840 | Crash, Stage 6 |
| 8 | 49 | Niemiec | Lampre | 25 | 0.0380 | 0.7220 | |
| 9 | 5 | Pozzovivo | AG2R | 35 | 0.0280 | 0.7500 | |
| 10 | 7 | Kelderman | Belkin | 40 | 0.0240 | 0.7740 | |
| 11 | 4 | Rolland | Europcar | 45 | 0.0220 | 0.8390 | |
| 12 | 19 | Cunego | Lampre | 45 | 0.0220 | 0.7960 | |
| 13 | 24 | Sanchez | BMC | 45 | 0.0220 | 0.8180 | |
| 14 | 9 | Hesjedal | Garmin | 50 | 0.0200 | 0.8790 | TTT disaster |
| 15 | 41 | Moreno | Katusha | 50 | 0.0200 | 0.8590 | |
| 16 | 10 | Kiserlovski | Trek | 60 | 0.0160 | 0.9110 | |
| 17 | 26 | Duarte | Colombia | 60 | 0.0160 | 0.8950 | |
| 18 | 12 | Pellizotti | Androni Giacattoli | 80 | 0.0120 | 0.9240 | |
| 19 | 15 | Basso | Cannondale | 100 | 0.0100 | 0.9530 | |
| 20 | 37 | Anton | Movistar | 100 | 0.0100 | 0.9440 | Several weak stages |
| 21 | DNF | Santaromita | Orica | 100 | 0.0100 | 0.9340 | Did not start stage 18 |
| 22 | 65 | De Gendt | OPQS | 200 | 0.0050 | 0.9580 | Lost 10 minutes on stage 6 |
| 23 | 3 | Aru | Astana | 500 | 0.0020 | 0.9640 | |
| 24 | 6 | Majka | Tinkoff-Saxo | 500 | 0.0020 | 0.9620 | |
| 25 | DNF | Brajkovic | Astana | 500 | 0.0020 | 0.9600 | Crash, Stage 6 |