| Predicted | Finish | Rider | Team | Odds | Prob | CumProb | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DNF | Porte | Sky | 3 | 0.1899 | 0.1899 | Puncture and penalty, Stage 10
Crash, Stage 13 Withdrew after Stage 15 |
| 2 | 1 | Contador | Tinkoff-Saxo | 3.5 | 0.1688 | 0.3586 | Dislocated Shoulder, Stage 6
Crash, Stage 13 |
| 3 | 2 | Aru | Astana | 6 | 0.1085 | 0.4671 | Stage 19 winner
Stage 20 winner |
| 4 | DNF | Pozzovivo | AG2R | 7 | 0.0949 | 0.5621 | Serious Crash, Stage 3 |
| 5 | 5 | Hesjedal | Cannondale-Garmin | 8 | 0.0844 | 0.6464 | |
| 6 | 14 | Uran | Etixx-Quickstep | 9 | 0.0759 | 0.7224 | |
| 7 | 20 | Betancur | AG2R | 19 | 0.0380 | 0.7604 | |
| 8 | 120 | Acevedo | Cannondale-Garmin | 24 | 0.0304 | 0.7907 | |
| 9 | 6 | Konig | Sky | 33 | 0.0223 | 0.8131 | |
| 10 | 7 | Kruijswijk | LottoNL-Jumbo | 39 | 0.0190 | 0.8321 | |
| 11 | DNF | Cunego | Nippo-Vini Fantini | 44 | 0.0169 | 0.8489 | Crash, Stage 18 |
| 12 | 11 | Monfort | Lotto Soudal | 49 | 0.0152 | 0.8641 | |
| 13 | 12 | Van den Broeck | Lotto Soudal | 54 | 0.0138 | 0.8779 | |
| 14 | 63 | Ulissi | Lampre Merida | 59 | 0.0127 | 0.8906 | Stage 7 winner |
| 15 | 73 | Nocentini | AG2R | 74 | 0.0101 | 0.9007 | |
| 16 | 44 | Henao | Sky | 79 | 0.0095 | 0.9102 | |
| 17 | 32 | Rogers | Tinkoff-Saxo | 84 | 0.0089 | 0.9191 | |
| 18 | 40 | Niemiec | Lampre Merida | 89 | 0.0084 | 0.9276 | |
| 19 | 17 | Nieve | Sky | 94 | 0.0080 | 0.9356 | |
| 20 | DNF | Gerrans | ORICA GreenEDGE | 98 | 0.0077 | 0.9432 | Pink Jersey after Stage 1
Crash, Stage 12 |
| 21 | 13 | Kangert | Astana | 99 | 0.0076 | 0.9508 | |
| 22 | 24 | Pellizotti | Androni Giacattoli | 104 | 0.0072 | 0.9581 | |
| 23 | 32 | Chavenel | IAM Cycling | 107 | 0.0070 | 0.9651 | |
| 24 | 56 | Zakarin | Katusha | 119 | 0.0063 | 0.9714 | Stage 11 winner |
| 25 | 22 | Kreuziger | Tinkoff-Saxo | 178 | 0.0042 | 0.9757 | |
| 26 | Danielson | Cannondale-Garmin | 199 | 0.0038 | 0.9795 | ||
| 27 | 80 | Paterski | CCC | 249 | 0.0030 | 0.9825 | |
| 28 | 34 | Sanchez, LL | Astana | 299 | 0.0025 | 0.9850 | |
| 29 | 22 | Pirazzi | Baridani CSF | 399 | 0.0019 | 0.9869 | |
| 30 | 27 | Intxausti | Movistar | 489 | 0.0015 | 0.9885 | Stage 8 winner |
| FIELD | 3 | Landa | Astana | 0 | 1 | Stage 15 winner
Stage 16 winner | |
| FIELD | 4 | Amador | Movistar | 0 | 1 | ||
| FIELD | 8 | Caruso | BMC | 0 | 1 | ||
| FIELD | 9 | Geniez | FDJ | 0 | 1 | ||
| FIELD | 10 | Trofimov | Katusha | 0 | 1 | ||
| FIELD | 15 | Moinard | BMC | 0 | 1 |