Tour de France 2014

Yellow Jersey Predictions

Rank Rider Team Odds Prob CumProb Notes Final
1 Contador Tinkoff Saxo 3.0 0.2500 0.2500 Crash, DNF Stage 10 DNF
2 Froome Sky 3.5 0.2222 0.4722 Crash, DNF Stage 5 DNF
3 Valverde Movistar 8.0 0.1111 0.5833 4
4 Nibali Astana 10.0 0.0909 0.6742 1
5 Mollema Belkin 12.0 0.0769 0.7512 10
6 Talansky Garmin Sharp 15.0 0.0625 0.8137 Crashes, DNS Stage 12 DNF
7 Costa Lampre 35.0 0.0278 0.8414 Illness, DNS Stage 16 DNF
8 Konig Netapp Endura 45.0 0.0217 0.8632 7
9 Kwiatkowski OPQS 60.0 0.0164 0.8796 28
10 Bardet AG2R 70.0 0.0141 0.8937 6
11 Van Den Broeck Lotto Belisol 80.0 0.0123 0.9060 13
12 Van Garderen BMC 90.0 0.0110 0.9170 5
13 Pinot FDJ 100.0 0.0099 0.9269 3
14 Peraud AG2R 110.0 0.0090 0.9359 2
15 Ten Dam Belkin 120.0 0.0083 0.9442 9
16 Rodriquez Katusha 140.0 0.0071 0.9513 54
17 Voeckler Europcar 150.0 0.0066 0.9579 42
18 Schleck F Trek 160.0 0.0062 0.9641 12
19 Nieve Sky 180.0 0.0055 0.9696 18
20 Rolland Europcar 200.0 0.0050 0.9746 11
21 Fuglsang Astana 230.0 0.0043 0.9789 36
22 Bakelants OPQS 250.0 0.0040 0.9829 24
23 Horner Lampre 300.0 0.0033 0.9862 17
24 Roche Tinkoff Saxo 350.0 0.0028 0.9891 39
25 Trofimov Katusha 400.0 0.0025 0.9916 14
26 Frank IAM 450.0 0.0022 0.9938 Crash, DNF Stage 7 DNF
27 Navarro Cofidis 500.0 0.0020 0.9958 Illness, Stage 13 DNF
28 Gerrans Orica GreenEDGE 750.0 0.0013 0.9971 DNS, Stage 17 DNF
29 Porte Sky 1000.0 0.0010 0.9981 23
30 Rogers Tinkoff Saxo 2000.0 0.0005 0.9986 26
field Zubeldia Trek 8