Tour de France 2014
Green Jersey Predictions
| Rank |
Rider | Team |
Odds | Prob |
CumProb |
Notes | Final |
| 1 | Sagan |
Cannondale | 3.0 |
0.250 | 0.250 | |
1 |
| 2 | Kittel | Giant
Shimano | 4.0 |
0.200 |
0.450 | | 4 |
| 3 | Greipel | Lotto
Belisol | 4.5 |
0.182 |
0.632 | | 7 |
| 4 | Cavendish |
OPQS | 5.0 |
0.167 | 0.798 | Crash, Stage
1 | DNF |
| 5 | Demare |
FDJ | 20.0 |
0.048 |
0.846 | | 20 |
| 6 | Modolo |
Lampre | 30.0 |
0.032 | 0.878 | Illness; DNS Stage
3 | DNF |
| 7 | Degenkolb |
Giant Shimano |
60.0 | 0.016 |
0.895 | | 31 |
| 8 | Kristoff |
Katusha | 70.0 |
0.014 | 0.909 | |
2 |
| 9 | Viviani |
Cannondale | 80.0 |
0.012 |
0.921 | | 44 |
| 10 | Dumoulin |
AG2R | 90.0 |
0.011 |
0.932 | | 10 |
| 11 | Rojas |
Movistar | 110.0 |
0.009 | 0.941 | DSQ, Stage
18 | DNF |
| 12 | Haussler |
IAM | 120.0 |
0.008 | 0.949 | Illness, DNF Stage
18 | DNF |
| 13 | Feillu R |
BSE | 130.0 |
0.008 |
0.957 | | 16 |
| 14 | Renshaw |
OPQS | 180.0 |
0.006 |
0.963 | | 5 |
| 15 | Roelandts |
Lotto Belisol |
190.0 | 0.005 |
0.968 | | 92 |
| 16 | Coquard |
Europcar | 200.0 |
0.005 |
0.973 | | 3 |